Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 7-6 on May 18, 2026, at Yankee Stadium, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate placed at a 69% home-win probability before first pitch and ultimately closed at 100%. Toronto built its case early, with Ernie Clement delivering the game's second-largest win-probability swing in the top of the fourth, a home run off Ryan Weathers that added 31.2% to the Blue Jays' chances and stood as the afternoon's most valuable individual offensive contribution by WPA, finishing with a game-high +40.8% and a RE24 of +3.2. The Blue Jays pushed further ahead with a run in the fifth and another in the sixth, carrying a lead into the seventh that looked increasingly difficult to overturn.

The seventh inning erased it entirely. With Yariel Rodríguez on the mound for Toronto, the Yankees strung together a four-run bottom half that contained the two most damaging single swings of the game. Cody Bellinger's home run added 31.4% win probability, the largest single-play shift of the contest, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. followed with his own home run moments later for an additional 30.0% swing. Those two blasts restructured the game's probability landscape in a matter of plate appearances, and Chisholm finished with +31.5% WPA and a RE24 of +1.8, while Bellinger closed at +27.2% WPA.

Toronto mounted a final push in the ninth against David Bednar, with Jesús Sánchez lacing a double that added 22.7% win probability and briefly kept the rally alive. However, a Brandon Valenzuela strikeout to close the inning cost the Blue Jays 13.8% in win probability and ended the threat. On the mound, Braydon Fisher led New York's pitching staff with +10.8% WPA, followed by Adam Macko at +10.5% and Fernando Cruz at +8.1%, as the Yankees' bullpen protected the one-run margin through the final frames.