Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles overcame a pre-game environment that the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Washington a 58 percent chance of winning, instead rolling to a 7-3 victory at Nationals Park on May 17, 2026, to hand the Nationals a final win probability of zero. Baltimore collected 11 hits against no errors while Washington committed one, and the Orioles built their lead in waves through the early innings before Washington could mount any sustained response.

The decisive offensive swings came in the second and fourth innings off Miles Mikolas. Coby Mayo connected on a home run in the top of the second that shifted Baltimore's win probability upward by 7.9 percent, and later in that same frame a Jeremiah Jackson groundout moved the needle another 7.7 percent in the Orioles' favor as Washington's defense failed to convert. Colton Cowser then delivered the single biggest offensive moment of the game with a home run off Mikolas in the top of the fourth, a swing worth plus-10.1 percent in win probability that effectively broke the contest open. Washington's best chance at a counter came in the bottom of the second, when a Nasim Nuñez groundout off Brandon Young represented a 9.5 percent swing against the Nationals, and a José Tena walk in the bottom of the fourth added 6.9 percent to Washington's ledger, but neither moment produced the runs needed to close the gap.

On the Baltimore side, Jacob Young led all batters by WPA at plus-9.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Colton Cowser and Jeremiah Jackson each posted plus-8.6 percent WPA figures. The pitching staff was equally stout, with Anthony Nunez generating plus-9.5 percent WPA to pace the Baltimore arms, followed by Brandon Young at plus-7.7 percent and Yennier Cano at plus-5.2 percent as the Orioles completed a thorough road win.