New York Yankees at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the New York Yankees 6-3 at Citi Field on May 16, 2026, completing the win against a Yankees club that the DiamondIQ model gave only a 36 percent chance of winning before first pitch, a figure that moved to 100 percent by game's end. New York's scoring was distributed across several innings, with the Mets building their lead incrementally through the third, fourth, and fifth frames while the Yankees managed single runs in the second, fifth, and seventh. The home side finished with eight hits and allowed nine, but the Mets executed at the right moments while their pitching staff held when it mattered most.

The decisive shifts in win probability told the story of a game won in the middle innings on the Mets' side. Mark Vientos was the central figure offensively, generating the two largest positive swings for the home team. His double in the bottom of the fifth off Brent Headrick added 14.2 percent to New York's win probability, and a groundout in the bottom of the third off Carlos Rodón produced a 14.0 percent swing, indicating it came with runners in scoring position in a high-leverage situation. Brett Baty's double off Rodón in the fourth added another 11.5 percent. The Yankees' most significant threat came in the top of the seventh, when Jazz Chisholm Jr. singled off Brooks Raley for a 15.5 percent swing in New York's favor, but Trent Grisham's strikeout against Luke Weaver immediately following erased 11.0 percent of that ground, effectively neutralizing the rally.

Vientos finished as the game's top performer by WPA, accumulating plus-34.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.8, reflecting his outsized contribution in run-scoring situations throughout the night. On the pitching side, Luke Weaver led all arms with plus-33.3 percent WPA, underscoring his ability to limit damage in the game's most critical junctures, particularly in that seventh-inning sequence. Huascar Brazobán and Jake Bird provided additional stability out of the bullpen, adding 6.0 and 2.5 percent respectively. For the Yankees, Paul Goldschmidt and Aaron Judge each contributed plus-14.8 and plus-13.3 percent WPA with matching RE24 marks of plus-1.0, though their efforts were not enough to overcome the Mets' production when leverage was highest.