Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-2 at Coors Field on May 16, 2026, handing Arizona a loss in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a 45 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Colorado built its advantage early, scoring two runs in the first inning and one in the second, and the Rockies' pitching staff largely kept Arizona's offense in check throughout. The Diamondbacks managed nine hits but could convert only twice, with their most damaging sequence coming when Corbin Carroll's ninth-inning strikeout against Antonio Senzatela carried a win-probability swing of negative 8.1 percent, effectively closing the door on any late comeback. A Ketel Marte walk in that same frame offered a brief flicker, adding 6.7 percent to Arizona's chances, but it came to nothing.

The decisive contributions on Colorado's side centered on their pitching corps. Jaden Hill was the game's single most impactful performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, generating a positive win-probability swing of 18.5 percent, with Geraldo Perdomo's groundout against him in the seventh representing one of the evening's most consequential at-bats at negative 7.7 percent for Arizona. Tomoyuki Sugano contributed 10.9 percent in win-probability value and induced a key Ryan Waldschmidt strikeout in the second inning worth negative 6.8 percent to the Diamondbacks. Juan Mejia added another 8.1 percent for the Rockies, rounding out a staff that collectively dominated. Sterlin Thompson's grounded into double play in the third inning against Eduardo Rodriguez, a negative 7.6 percent swing against Colorado in their own half, was the one sequence that momentarily complicated the home side's path.

Offensively for Colorado, TJ Rumfield led all position players with 8.8 percent in win-probability added and a run expectancy of plus 1.0, making him the most productive bat in the game by those measures. Hunter Goodman contributed 4.5 percent in WPA alongside a 0.2 RE24, and Corbin Carroll matched Goodman's WPA figure at 4.5 percent despite finishing with a negative RE24 of minus 0.2, reflecting a night where individual moments of promise did not translate into run production for Arizona.