Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds held on to defeat the Cleveland Guardians 7-6 at Progressive Field on May 15, 2026, completing a comeback that left the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability of 53% at exactly zero by the final out. Cincinnati built its advantage through a two-run second inning and an additional run in the fifth before the game shifted dramatically in the eighth, when both clubs exchanged significant blows. The Guardians clawed within range in the bottom of the sixth on a Rhys Hoskins home run off Andrew Abbott that shifted win probability 11.2 points in Cleveland's favor, and the home team continued pressing in the eighth, ultimately scoring four runs that inning to knot or threaten the lead. Cincinnati responded with three runs of its own in the top of the eighth, a critical sequence that kept the Reds ahead despite the Guardians' rally.

The decisive moment of the game came in the bottom of the ninth, when Travis Bazzana grounded out against Tejay Antone with the bases loaded or runners on, a play that swung win probability 31.6 points in Cincinnati's favor by stranding Cleveland's threat and sealing the result. That single out represented the largest win-probability swing of the night and ended Cleveland's last realistic chance at a comeback. Earlier in the eighth, Chase DeLauter's flyout off Brock Burke had been a costly missed opportunity for the Guardians, costing the home team 22.1 points of win probability at a moment when they had the momentum. Brock Burke absorbed two walks to Steven Kwan and Brayan Rocchio in the same frame, each adding 15.8 points of win probability to the Reds' ledger and contributing to Cincinnati's critical cushion.

Among the individual standouts, Bazzana finished as the highest-impact player by WPA at plus-34.7, though his RE24 of plus-0.3 suggested his contributions were tied closely to leverage rather than raw run creation. Matt McLain was the most productive bat by run-expectancy context, posting a plus-3.3 RE24 to go with a plus-13.5 WPA, while JJ Bleday added plus-1.6 RE24 and plus-11.7 WPA in support. On the mound, Andrew Abbott led Cincinnati's pitching staff with a plus-17.1 WPA despite surrendering the Hoskins home run, and Tony Santillan and Pierce Johnson contributed plus-8.8 and plus-7.5 respectively as the bullpen navigated the late pressure at Progressive Field.