Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 1 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 2 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins handed the Minnesota Twins a 9-5 defeat at Target Field on May 13, 2026, erasing the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 52 percent home win probability and pushing that figure to zero by the final out. Miami struck early and often, plating two runs in each of the first two innings before delivering the knockout blow with a four-run fourth that effectively settled the contest. The Marlins finished with 11 hits against two Minnesota errors, while the Twins managed eight hits but could not sustain any of their early momentum against Max Meyer.
The game's decisive swing came in the fourth inning, when Simeon Woods Richardson unraveled against Miami's lineup. Joe Mack's single carried a win-probability swing of plus 8.2 percent, and Xavier Edwards followed with a double worth plus 6.2 percent, compounding the damage in an inning that functionally ended Minnesota's chances. Owen Caissie had set the tone even earlier with a second-inning home run off Woods Richardson that shifted win probability by plus 7.1 percent. Minnesota's most meaningful counterpunch came from Byron Buxton, whose third-inning home run off Meyer registered a plus 9.4 percent swing, briefly offering the Twins a foothold. Tristan Gray's strikeout to close the second inning proved equally significant in the other direction, costing Minnesota 8.3 percent in win probability as the Marlins preserved their early cushion.
Meyer was the standout performer in the box score by win-probability contribution, finishing with a plus 7.3 percent WPA mark despite surrendering the Buxton home run. Among position players, Byron Buxton and Liam Hicks each finished with identical plus 11.3 percent WPA figures and nearly matching RE24 totals of plus 1.8 and plus 1.7 respectively, making them the two most impactful individual performers of the afternoon regardless of the final margin. Leo Jiménez added a plus 10.3 percent WPA contribution for Miami, while Tyler Phillips and Justin Topa provided modest stabilizing work out of the Marlins bullpen to close out the final innings.