New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Baltimore Orioles 6-2 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 12, 2026, handing Baltimore a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had telegraphed with a pre-game home win probability of just 36 percent, a figure that ultimately fell to zero. The Yankees scored all six of their runs in two innings, with the decisive damage coming in a five-run third that effectively ended the competitive portion of the game before it reached its midpoint.

The third inning was the turning point by a wide margin. Trent Grisham's home run off Trevor Rogers was the single most impactful play of the night, swinging win probability by 16.0 percentage points in New York's favor, and he finished as the game's top performer with a WPA of plus-15.0 and an RE24 of plus-2.5. Rogers continued to struggle through the inning, with Amed Rosario's single adding another 7.7 points and Ben Rice's walk contributing 5.4 more. Baltimore's best chance to respond came in the bottom of the third, but Adley Rutschman grounded into a double play off Will Warren, a sequence that cost the Orioles 5.2 percentage points of win probability and kept the deficit firmly in place. The Orioles managed a two-run sixth on Tyler O'Neill's double, which added 4.6 points from Baltimore's perspective, but the margin was too large to threaten seriously.

On the mound, Fernando Cruz led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-6.0, followed by Will Warren at plus-2.7 and Tim Hill at plus-2.1. Jeremiah Jackson and Amed Rosario rounded out New York's top offensive contributors at plus-5.3 and plus-5.1 WPA respectively. The Yankees finished with nine hits against six for Baltimore, committing two errors to the Orioles' one, though neither team's defensive miscues altered the outcome in any meaningful way given the lopsided scoring.