Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Seattle Mariners held off the Houston Astros 3-1 at Daikin Park on May 11, 2026, completing a wire-to-wire victory that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Houston win drop from a pre-game 44 percent all the way to zero. Seattle built its entire margin in the first three innings, scoring twice in the second and once more in the third, then protected that lead through six scoreless frames from the Astros offense. Houston managed nine hits on the night to Seattle's seven but could not convert, leaving the Mariners' clean three-run total as the difference.
The decisive sequence of plays began in the top of the third, when Julio Rodríguez launched a home run off Peter Lambert that added 8.5 percent to Seattle's win probability and effectively stretched the lead to what would prove to be an insurmountable three runs. Houston's most significant response came in the fifth, when Isaac Paredes singled off George Kirby to push the Astros' chances up 8.2 percent, and again in the eighth, when Christian Walker drew a walk off Eduard Bazardo to add another 8.9 percent for Houston. Bazardo, however, responded by striking out Zach Cole in that same inning, a swing of negative 7.8 percent against Houston that blunted the threat. Andrés Muñoz closed out the ninth by striking out Yordan Alvarez, a moment that added 12.0 percent to Seattle's probability and sealed the game.
The top performer by WPA on the offensive side was Rodríguez, who finished at plus-8.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.0, driven entirely by that third-inning blast. Alvarez, despite his strikeout to end the game, posted plus-8.6 percent WPA on the strength of the threat he represented, though his RE24 finished at minus-1.0 reflecting the missed opportunity. On the mound, Bazardo led all pitchers at plus-13.3 percent WPA, edging George Kirby's plus-13.2 percent, with Cooper Criswell contributing plus-8.8 percent in support as Seattle's pitching staff collectively neutralized a Houston lineup that had the hits but not the timing.