Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays handed the Boston Red Sox a 4-1 defeat at Fenway Park on May 10, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming in full — Boston entered with a 30% win probability and finished at 0%. The Rays built their lead methodically, scoring in the first inning before breaking the game open with a two-run third. That third inning proved decisive, as Ben Williamson's single off Payton Tolle shifted win probability by +10.0% in Tampa Bay's favor, the single largest swing of the game. Boston's best scoring chance came in the bottom half of that inning, but Jarren Duran grounded out against Nick Martinez, a play that swung win probability 8.0% back toward the Rays and effectively extinguished the Red Sox's most dangerous threat of the afternoon.

Boston scratched out a run in the sixth on Mickey Gasper's single off Martinez, a +7.2% swing that briefly offered the home side a foothold, but the Rays answered with a run of their own in the same frame to preserve their three-run cushion. The ninth inning saw some late drama — Marcelo Mayer drew a walk off Bryan Baker for a +7.1% swing — but Ceddanne Rafaela's strikeout to end the game erased those hopes entirely, a -6.4% drop that closed the door. Gasper finished as Boston's top performer with a +12.8% WPA and a +1.7 RE24, while Williamson led all Rays hitters with a +11.7% WPA and +1.6 RE24. On the mound, Nick Martinez was the central figure for Tampa Bay, posting a +10.3% WPA, with Kevin Kelly adding +9.9% in what amounted to a clean and controlled Rays victory from wire to wire.