Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | 5 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins defeated the Washington Nationals 5-2 at loanDepot park on May 10, 2026, with the game's outcome shaped by two separate bursts of offense that the DiamondIQ model's estimate ultimately framed as inevitable, finishing at 100% in Miami's favor after entering the night at 54% for the home side. Miami drew first blood in the bottom of the third, when Liam Hicks delivered a single off Cade Cavalli that added 13.3% to the Marlins' win probability and opened the scoring in a two-run frame. Washington answered with a run in the fourth and again in the fifth, the latter powered by a Luis García Jr. double off Sandy Alcantara that swung win probability 13.4% in the Nationals' direction and briefly made it a competitive game heading into the middle innings.
The eighth inning settled matters decisively. With Miami trailing 2-2 or pressing for separation, Heriberto Hernández and Christopher Morel each singled off Gus Varland in the bottom half, each hit carrying a 15.1% win-probability swing, and the Marlins pushed across three runs to take a 5-2 lead they would not relinquish. That three-run burst effectively ended Washington's chances in a single inning. Hernández had been a mixed factor on the night, having cost Miami 10.9% in win probability on a fielder's choice out in the sixth off Cade Cavalli, but his eighth-inning contribution more than offset that earlier damage.
On the pitching side, Calvin Faucher was Miami's most impactful arm by WPA, adding 18.9% to the Marlins' chances out of the bullpen, with Orlando Ribalta and PJ Poulin contributing 8.3% and 7.1% respectively. Offensively, Luis García Jr. paced Washington in vain with a team-best plus-19.0% WPA and plus-1.7 RE24, while Liam Hicks led Miami's contributors at plus-12.6% WPA and plus-1.2 RE24, followed by Jakob Marsee at plus-11.8% WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. Both teams finished with six hits apiece, but Washington's lone error and Miami's timely clustering of runs in the third and eighth proved to be the difference.