Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Houston Astros 3-1 on May 9, 2026, at Great American Ball Park in a game that remained scoreless through four innings before a decisive fifth inning settled the outcome. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Cincinnati holding a 66 percent home win probability, and that figure climbed steadily to 100 percent by the final out.

The game's turning point arrived in the fifth inning, when Houston's Braden Shewmake connected for a home run off Chase Burns, a swing that added 13.0 percent to the Astros' win probability and briefly tightened the contest. Cincinnati responded immediately in the bottom half against Spencer Arrighetti. Matt McLain delivered a single that swung win probability 12.0 percent in the Reds' favor, and Elly De La Cruz followed with another single worth 9.7 percent, as Cincinnati pushed across three runs in the frame to take a lead they would not relinquish. Houston's lone threat in the sixth came when Yordan Alvarez doubled off Burns for a 7.8 percent swing, but Isaac Paredes stranded the opportunity with a flyout that cost the Astros 5.7 percent in win probability.

On the offensive side, Alvarez led all batters with a plus-10.5 percent WPA and plus-0.6 RE24 despite the loss, while Shewmake posted plus-9.1 percent WPA and plus-0.7 RE24 in the defeat. De La Cruz contributed plus-8.2 percent WPA and the game's top RE24 mark of plus-0.8 for Cincinnati. On the mound, Graham Ashcraft headlined the pitching performances with plus-8.1 percent WPA, followed by Burns at plus-7.5 percent and Brock Burke at plus-7.2 percent. Houston fell to a final line of one run on four hits with two errors, while Cincinnati finished with three runs on five hits and no errors.