Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

Baltimore came away with a 9-7 victory over Miami at loanDepot park on May 5, 2026, in a game that required a late offensive burst to secure. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with the Marlins holding a 54% pre-game win probability, yet that figure eroded steadily as Baltimore chipped away, and the model's estimate ultimately closed at 0% for Miami following the final out. The Orioles jumped ahead early, scoring three in the first inning, then added to their lead in the third and fifth, but Miami answered with runs of its own in the second, third, seventh, and eighth to keep the contest unsettled heading into the ninth.

The single most consequential moment of the night came in the top of the ninth, when Adley Rutschman delivered a single off Andrew Nardi that shifted Baltimore's win probability by 34.9 percentage points, by far the largest swing of the game. That hit capped a two-run ninth that gave Baltimore the cushion it needed. Samuel Basallo had laid the groundwork across multiple at-bats, producing the game's second and fourth biggest positive swings for the Orioles — a triple off Sandy Alcantara in the fifth worth 15.4 percentage points and a single off Alcantara in the third worth 11.6 points. Otto Lopez had provided Miami its brightest moment with a seventh-inning home run off Anthony Nunez that shifted win probability 15.6 points in the Marlins' favor, briefly tightening the game, but Jakob Marsee's strikeout to end the ninth sealed Baltimore's win with a 14.4-point swing.

Rutschman finished as the top performer by WPA at plus-34.9% alongside a RE24 of plus-0.9, while Basallo accumulated plus-26.3% WPA and a game-high RE24 of plus-3.9, making him the most impactful run-context contributor of the night. Pete Alonso added plus-17.1% WPA and plus-2.6 RE24 to round out Baltimore's top offensive contributors. On the pitching side, William Kempner led the Orioles' relievers with plus-7.4% WPA, followed by Keegan Akin at plus-5.6% and Grant Wolfram at plus-5.1%, a collective bullpen effort that helped Baltimore preserve the lead through the final innings.