Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | 4 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
Tampa Bay held off Toronto 4-3 at Tropicana Field on May 5, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 74 percent pre-game home win probability and closing at 100 percent. The Rays and Blue Jays traded single runs through the first two innings before the game settled into a pitching standoff, with each side adding a run in the third and fourth before Toronto briefly cut into the deficit in the fifth. The decisive moment came in the bottom of the eighth, when Tampa Bay turned a tie game or close deficit into a sealed result through back-to-back singles off Toronto reliever Tyler Rogers. Yandy Díaz delivered first, his single adding 18.3 percent to Tampa Bay's win probability, and Ben Williamson followed immediately with another single worth 17.6 percent, together accounting for the two-run eighth that pushed the final margin to 4-3.
The afternoon's most damaging sequence for Toronto came in the fifth inning, when George Springer grounded into a double play against Drew Rasmussen, costing the Blue Jays 12.2 percent in win probability and extinguishing a potential rally. Yohendrick Piñango partially answered with a single in that same frame worth 10.8 percent to Toronto's side, but it was not enough to overcome the damage. Earlier in the second, Cedric Mullins flew out against Kevin Gausman in a spot that cost Tampa Bay 11.7 percent, a sign of how effectively Gausman contained threats on the road side of the ledger.
On the individual ledger, Williamson finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-17.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.0, reflecting the outsized run-environment impact of his eighth-inning hit. Jonathan Aranda contributed plus-8.8 percent and Piñango added plus-5.8 percent to round out Tampa Bay's most productive offensive contributors. On the mound, Gausman led all pitchers with plus-27.9 percent WPA, dominating opposing hitters through his time in the game despite the loss, while Cole Sulser at plus-15.2 percent and Jeff Hoffman at plus-9.7 percent bolstered the Tampa Bay bullpen to close it out.