Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies shut out the Miami Marlins 1-0 at loanDepot park on May 4, 2026, completing a tightly contested game in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate entered with Miami holding a 57 percent home win probability and exited at zero. The game's lone run came in the top of the third inning, when Bryce Harper hit a home run off Janson Junk, a swing that shifted win probability by 10.9 percent in Philadelphia's favor and ultimately proved to be the only scoring either side would produce across nine innings.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the bottom of the ninth, where the Marlins mounted their most serious threat against closer Brad Keller before the game slipped away. Kyle Stowers led off with a single that swung win probability 12.3 percent toward Miami, briefly reviving the home side's chances. However, Liam Hicks then grounded out in a sequence worth plus 27.0 percent for Philadelphia, and Otto Lopez followed by grounding into a double play that swung the win probability another 27.2 percent toward the Phillies, ending the game. Hicks finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 17.9 percent despite a minus 0.9 RE24, a reflection of how his at-bat factored into the high-leverage late-game situation.

On the mound, Aaron Nola was the game's most impactful performer by a wide margin, accumulating plus 34.6 percent WPA over his outing and anchoring a Philadelphia staff that collectively held Miami to seven hits while matching the Phillies' own seven-hit output. José Alvarado contributed plus 23.3 percent WPA in relief, including a pivotal strikeout of Jakob Marsee in the eighth inning that swung win probability 12.9 percent toward Philadelphia. Lake Bachar added plus 11.0 percent WPA, and the three combined with Keller to preserve what the DiamondIQ model recognized as a narrow but ultimately decisive Phillies advantage.