San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays walked off the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in ten innings on May 3, 2026, at Tropicana Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game at a 77 percent home win probability and finishing at 100 percent after Jonathan Aranda delivered the decisive blow. San Francisco struck first with a run in the top of the first inning, and the game remained a 1-0 Giants lead deep into the contest before Tampa Bay finally knotted it in the eighth.

The swing of fortunes in the eighth inning set the stage for the finish. Ryan Vilade's sacrifice bunt off Ryan Walker shifted win probability by plus 15.8 percent in Tampa Bay's favor, advancing the tying run, though Ben Williamson's double play in the same frame cost the Rays 24.3 percent in win probability and briefly stalled the rally. The Giants came within one out of escaping the inning before the Rays ultimately tied the game, and in the tenth, Eric Haase grounded out for San Francisco against Ian Seymour, a play that added 14.3 percent to Tampa Bay's win probability by extending the game under favorable conditions.

Aranda was the clear standout of the night, finishing with a plus 40.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.2, capped by his walk-off single off Caleb Kilian in the bottom of the tenth that shifted win probability by plus 28.4 percent and ended the game. Ryan Vilade and Junior Caminero also contributed meaningfully, posting WPA figures of plus 17.8 and plus 14.4 percent respectively. On the mound, Tyler Mahle led all pitchers with a plus 35.7 percent WPA, supported by Matt Gage at plus 14.2 and Hunter Bigge at plus 14.0 as Tampa Bay's bullpen held the Giants to a single run across six innings.