Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-1 at Busch Stadium on May 3, 2026, dropping the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability from 51 percent all the way to zero. Los Angeles did its damage in clusters, plating two runs in the second inning and adding one more in the fifth before closing with a ninth-inning insurance run, while St. Louis managed its lone run in the bottom of the eighth on an Alec Burleson single off Will Klein that shifted win probability 6.7 percent in the Cardinals' favor — the most consequential Cardinals offensive moment of the night, though it arrived far too late to matter. A Pedro Pagés caught stealing in the second inning proved particularly damaging for St. Louis, costing the home side 8.1 percent in win probability at a stage of the game when the Cardinals were still very much in contention.

Justin Wrobleski was the central figure in the Dodgers' victory, his performance adding 33.3 percent in win probability — the single largest contribution by any player on either side. He navigated the Cardinals' lineup with enough consistency to keep Los Angeles in firm control through the middle innings. Blake Treinen and Will Klein provided support out of the bullpen, adding 4.4 and 3.2 percent in win probability respectively, and Tanner Scott closed things out by inducing a Pagés strikeout in the ninth that was worth 6.3 percent. Among position players, Hyeseong Kim led all batters with 7.8 percent in win probability added and a RE24 of plus-1.6, with Shohei Ohtani and Miguel Rojas each contributing modest positive marks as well. Freddie Freeman's fifth-inning single off Dustin May was the game's single biggest offensive swing at plus-8.8 percent, though a Freeman double-play grounder in the third partially offset that contribution at minus-5.9 percent.