Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 3-2 at Nationals Park on May 3, 2026, with the game's outcome hinging almost entirely on a two-run fifth inning that swung the contest decisively in Washington's favor. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Nationals a 45 percent chance of winning at home, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent at the final out.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fifth against Brewers starter Logan Henderson. José Tena's triple was the single biggest swing of the night, adding 17.5 percentage points to Washington's win probability, followed immediately by Nasim Nuñez's run-scoring single, which added another 13.0 points. Those back-to-back blows off Henderson built the foundation of what proved to be the decisive lead. A lineout by Jorbit Vivas that cost the Nationals 6.2 percentage points kept the inning from being even more damaging, though Washington still walked away with two runs in the frame. The Nationals added a seventh-inning run to push the margin to 3-1, and while Brandon Lockridge's strikeout to open the ninth — a 10.9-point swing against Milwaukee — effectively closed the door on any meaningful comeback, the Brewers managed only a single run in the final frame.

On the individual side, Nuñez led all position players with a WPA of plus-18.9 and an RE24 of plus-1.5, while Tena finished at plus-15.0 WPA and plus-1.2 RE24, making the two the clear offensive engines of Washington's effort. CJ Abrams contributed a modest plus-8.0 WPA. On the mound, Mitchell Parker led the pitching staff with a plus-16.7 WPA, supported by Zack Littell at plus-9.9 and PJ Poulin at plus-7.3, as the Nationals' collective pitching limited Milwaukee to just four hits with no errors on either side.