MLB Recap · May 2, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

PHI0
Final
MIA4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PHI000000000010
MIA00201100-4100

The Story

The Miami Marlins shut out the Philadelphia Phillies 4-0 on May 2, 2026 at loanDepot park, with Max Meyer and the Miami bullpen combining to hold Philadelphia to just one hit across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring Miami at 63% and closed at 100% as the Marlins controlled the contest from the third inning onward.

The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the third, where Andrew Painter ran into significant trouble. A walk to Agustín Ramírez shifted win probability by plus 11.6 points, and a subsequent walk to Connor Norby added another plus 8.8 points, pushing Miami firmly in control. Xavier Edwards then delivered the knockout blow in the fifth inning, connecting for a home run off Painter that swung win probability an additional plus 8.7 points and extended the lead to three runs. On the other side of the ledger, a Liam Hicks strikeout in the third cost Miami 7.9 points of win probability, and an Esteury Ruiz strikeout in the second surrendered 7.5 points, representing the closest the Phillies came to keeping the frame from fully unraveling.

Max Meyer was the story on the pitching side, accumulating plus 22.8 points of win probability added and standing as the game's single most impactful performer by that measure. Offensively, all three top contributors finished tightly bunched: Ramírez posted plus 13.2 WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, Edwards checked in at plus 13.1 WPA and plus 1.0 RE24, and Norby led the offensive group with plus 1.3 RE24 alongside plus 12.9 WPA. Anthony Bender and Trevor Richards combined to close out the shutout without incident.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PHI bats firstFinalMIA win %PHI win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 63% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bot 3rd · off Andrew Painter
+11.6%
Connor Norby Walk
Bot 3rd · off Andrew Painter
+8.8%
Xavier Edwards Home Run
Bot 5th · off Andrew Painter
+8.7%
Liam Hicks Strikeout
Bot 3rd · off Andrew Painter
-7.9%
Esteury Ruiz Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Andrew Painter
-7.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Agustín Ramírez+13.2%+1.1 RE24
Xavier Edwards+13.1%+1.0 RE24
Connor Norby+12.9%+1.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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