The New York Yankees defeated the Texas Rangers 3-2 at Globe Life Field on April 28, 2026, completing the comeback in the final two innings after a mostly quiet evening at the plate. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Texas entering the game as the favorite at 66% and never wavered far from that projection through eight innings, but the Rangers ultimately fell short as New York pushed across three runs in the seventh and ninth to erase an early Texas lead.
The decisive swing came in the top of the seventh inning when Austin Wells connected on a home run off Jalen Beeks, a play that shifted win probability by 15.3 percentage points in New York's favor and gave the Yankees their second run of the game. Fernando Cruz then became the central figure of the eighth inning, working through a Rangers threat that briefly looked dangerous. Corey Seager drew a walk off Cruz that added 11.5 percentage points to Texas's win probability, but Cruz stranded the threat by inducing strikeouts from Ezequiel Duran and Jake Burger, worth negative 12.3 and 11.0 percentage points respectively against the home side, and a forceout from Joc Pederson that removed another 10.4 percentage points from the Rangers' chances.
On the pitching side, Jacob deGrom led all players with a WPA of plus 29.2 percentage points, and Cam Schlittler contributed plus 28.4, making those two the backbone of New York's effort on the mound. Among position players, Josh Jung was the top performer by win probability at plus 21.8 with a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Wells finished at plus 18.3 and plus 1.2 RE24 to anchor the Yankees' offensive contribution. Cruz's plus 13.3 WPA in relief represented the strongest individual pitching performance of the late innings despite the Rangers' ultimate loss.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.