The Miami Marlins pulled off a 2-1 upset at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on April 28, 2026, handing the Los Angeles Dodgers a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 73% home win probability for Los Angeles. Miami scratched across its runs in the second and fifth innings while holding the Dodgers to a single run in the bottom of the eighth, and the Marlins bullpen ultimately slammed the door in the ninth to complete the improbable road win.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the ninth, where Dodgers first baseman Alex Freeland grounded out against Tyler Phillips in a moment that swung win probability by plus-27.0 percentage points in Miami's favor, effectively sealing the outcome. Earlier in the eighth, Max Muncy's groundout off John King had shifted things in the wrong direction for Los Angeles by 12.9 percentage points, and Hyeseong Kim's flyout to end the ninth moved the needle another 10.7 points toward the Marlins. On the offensive side, Kyle Stowers delivered a pivotal fifth-inning single off Shohei Ohtani that added 10.6 percentage points to Miami's win probability, providing what proved to be the decisive insurance run.
On the pitching ledger, starter Janson Junk was the standout performer, posting a plus-44.7 percentage points of WPA to lead all players in the game, while John King contributed plus-17.1 in relief and Anthony Bender added plus-8.8 to close things out. Among position players, Freeland led Miami's batters at plus-24.7 WPA despite the confusing nature of his contributions across the game's timeline, followed by Stowers at plus-9.0 and Xavier Edwards at plus-7.3. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Los Angeles's win probability fell from 73% before first pitch to zero by the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.