The Chicago Cubs defeated the San Diego Padres 8-3 at Petco Park on April 28, 2026, erasing the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 60 percent home win probability and running it to zero by the final out. The Cubs were held scoreless in the first inning and traded runs in the second before the game remained relatively close through five frames, with San Diego answering Chicago's early scoring with a run in the fourth off Edward Cabrera, highlighted by Ty France's single that added 11.8 percent to the Padres' win probability at that point. The Cubs, however, began pulling away in the sixth when Nico Hoerner doubled off David Morgan for the single biggest win-probability swing of the game at plus 21.3 percent, a sequence that pushed two Cubs runs across and shifted the momentum of the contest decisively.
The seventh inning sealed it entirely. Pete Crow-Armstrong launched a home run off Wandy Peralta that added 19.9 percent win probability, and Alex Bregman followed later in the frame with a single off Peralta worth another 12.4 percent, as Chicago piled on four runs in the inning to make it an insurmountable lead. Crow-Armstrong finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting plus 23.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.9, while Hoerner contributed plus 16.2 percent WPA and Bregman added plus 12.5 percent. On the pitching side, Hoby Milner led Cubs relievers at plus 3.3 percent WPA, and despite absorbing the loss, Cabrera posted a plus 3.1 percent WPA figure from the San Diego side, reflecting the moments he managed to limit damage. The Cubs finished with eight hits and no errors; the Padres committed one and managed six hits against a Cubs staff that ultimately held firm through nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.