The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Cleveland Guardians 4-2 on April 26, 2026, at Rogers Centre, pushing the DiamondIQ model's win probability from a pre-game estimate of 47 percent for the home side all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Toronto scored twice in the first inning and held that lead until Cleveland briefly threatened in the fifth, making for a tense middle stretch before the Blue Jays ultimately pulled away.
The fifth inning was the game's most volatile sequence. Brayan Rocchio singled off Patrick Corbin to begin a two-run Cleveland rally, and Angel Martínez followed with a double that added 11.9 percent to the Guardians' win probability as Cleveland tied the game at two. The inning could have been more damaging, but Braydon Fisher entered and induced a David Fry strikeout that swung win probability 9.5 percent back toward Toronto, and Patrick Corbin had earlier limited the damage with a Steven Kwan groundout double play that shifted the needle 9.3 percent in the Blue Jays' favor. Toronto answered decisively in the sixth when Jesús Sánchez launched a home run off Slade Cecconi, a single swing that added 16.8 percent to Toronto's win probability and proved to be the game's defining moment.
Sánchez finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus-16.8 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. added plus-11.0 percent and led all batters with a RE24 of plus-1.5. On the mound, Braydon Fisher led the pitching staff with plus-11.3 percent WPA, and both Jeff Hoffman and Tyler Rogers contributed meaningfully in relief with plus-8.1 and plus-7.2 percent, respectively. Cleveland out-hit Toronto eight to six but committed no errors to Toronto's one, yet the Blue Jays' ability to strand the Guardians' momentum in the fifth and respond immediately in the sixth was the difference in the final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.