The Washington Nationals defeated the Chicago White Sox 6-3 at Rate Field on April 25, 2026, finishing off a game that required extra innings to decide. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened the night with the White Sox holding a 52 percent home win probability, but Washington methodically erased that edge and ultimately drove it to zero. The Nationals broke a scoreless tie in the fourth inning, and Chicago answered with two runs in the eighth to knot the game before Washington pulled away with four runs in the tenth.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth, where the Nationals piled onto Jordan Leasure in dramatic fashion. Luis García Jr. delivered a single off Leasure that swung win probability 25.1 points in Washington's favor, and a walk issued to Joey Wiemer added another 19.1 points to the Nationals' ledger. Nasim Nuñez had already set the tone in the fourth with a run-scoring single off Noah Schultz that represented an 18.5-point swing, giving him the night's top WPA among hitters at plus-26.1 with a RE24 of plus-2.9. Everson Pereira's single off Gus Varland in the eighth provided the White Sox their only meaningful positive swing at plus-11.9, briefly tightening the contest before Washington's extra-inning burst ended any Chicago hope.
Miguel Vargas finished second among Nationals position players with a WPA of plus-22.6 and RE24 of plus-1.3, while García closed at plus-21.4. On the pitching side, starter Jake Irvin led all players on either roster with a WPA of plus-26.2, anchoring Washington's effort through his portion of the game. Grant Taylor contributed plus-13.5 in relief, and Jordan Hicks added plus-4.2 to close it out. The White Sox went 0-for-the-night in avoiding the deficit, finishing with seven hits against a final line of 6-3 in Washington's favor.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.