The Chicago Cubs walked off the Philadelphia Phillies 8-7 in ten innings at Wrigley Field on April 23, 2026, completing a comeback that required surviving a dramatic ninth inning before finishing the job at home. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Cubs an 82 percent win probability, and while that figure held over much of the contest, it was tested severely before the Cubs ultimately closed things out at 100 percent.
The most significant single swing of the night came in the top of the ninth, when Adolis García launched a home run off Caleb Thielbar that shifted win probability by 34.2 percent in Philadelphia's favor, briefly threatening to flip the outcome entirely. Michael Busch had given Chicago early momentum with a home run off Cristopher Sánchez in the bottom of the third, a swing worth 24.7 percent in win probability, and Seiya Suzuki added an 18.8 percent boost with a home run off Brad Keller in the eighth to keep the Cubs ahead entering the final frames. The Cubs ultimately ended it in the bottom of the tenth when Carson Kelly delivered a walk-off single off Tanner Banks, a hit that carried a 22.0 percent win-probability swing and brought the night to a close.
Despite García's late heroics boosting his WPA to plus-34.2 percent, the Cubs' side of the ledger was anchored by Carson Kelly at plus-27.1 percent WPA and plus-2.2 RE24, and Alec Bohm contributed plus-27.6 percent WPA for Philadelphia in a losing effort. On the mound, Riley Martin earned the highest pitching WPA of the night at plus-13.5 percent for Chicago, with Orion Kerkering adding plus-5.4 percent in support. Chicago's 18 hits to Philadelphia's 8 told the story of a Cubs offense that generated consistent pressure throughout, even when the Phillies threatened to steal the game late.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.