The Atlanta Braves handed the Washington Nationals a 7-2 defeat at Nationals Park on April 23, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated from early on, as Washington's pre-game win probability sat at just 28% and fell to 0% by the final out. Atlanta collected 14 hits across the game and scored in three separate innings, while the Nationals managed only five hits and crossed the plate just twice.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the seventh inning, when Ozzie Albies delivered a single off Gus Varland that swung win probability 24.3 points in Atlanta's favor, the single largest play of the game. That hit was the centerpiece of a four-run frame that effectively closed the door on any Nationals comeback. Earlier, in the top of the fourth, Michael Harris II had already done damage with a single off Cade Cavalli that moved Atlanta's win probability by 14.2 points, helping stake the Braves to a two-run lead heading into the middle innings. Washington's best moment came in the bottom of the fourth, when CJ Abrams launched a home run off JR Ritchie for a 12.1-point swing, briefly narrowing the deficit to one, though that represented the extent of the Nationals' offense.
Albies finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-27.6 and a RE24 of plus-3.0, while Harris added plus-23.5 WPA and plus-2.5 RE24. Abrams led Washington's hitters at plus-21.8 WPA despite the loss. On the pitching side, Richard Lovelady contributed the most among Atlanta's relievers with a plus-12.1 WPA, and Cade Cavalli's plus-7.8 WPA was the best showing among Nationals starters, though it ultimately was not enough to keep Atlanta's lineup in check.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.