The Chicago Cubs handed the Philadelphia Phillies a 7-2 defeat at Wrigley Field on April 22, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model anticipated from the outset, assigning the home side an 80% pre-game win probability that climbed to a certainty of 100% by game's end. Chicago built its advantage incrementally, scoring in five of nine innings and finishing with 13 hits against a Phillies error, while Philadelphia managed just 2 runs on 9 hits and committed an error of their own.
The decisive damage against Phillies starter Taijuan Walker came in a punishing third inning. Alex Bregman opened the sequence with a triple that shifted the win probability by plus 9.2%, and Michael Busch followed with a home run that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate an additional plus 10.2%. The fifth inning reinforced Chicago's control when Seiya Suzuki connected for a home run off Walker, the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 13.1%. Philadelphia's best chance to claw back evaporated in the top of the fifth, when Kyle Schwarber grounded into a double play off Matthew Boyd, a sequence that cost the Phillies 9.5 percentage points of win probability. An earlier Nico Hoerner flyout in the second had already drained another 8.1 points from Philadelphia's outlook.
On the individual ledger, Bregman led all position players with a WPA of plus 12.4% and a RE24 of plus 1.4, his triple proving a catalyst for the Cubs' early burst. Rafael Marchán contributed plus 8.7% WPA, and Edmundo Sosa added plus 7.8% WPA alongside a matching RE24 of plus 1.4. On the mound, Ben Brown was the Cubs' most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a WPA of plus 7.4%, while Kyle Backhus and Corbin Martin provided supporting value at plus 3.6% and plus 1.9% respectively.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.