The San Francisco Giants defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-0 at Oracle Park on April 22, 2026, in a game that remained scoreless through six innings before a decisive seventh-inning burst settled the outcome. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had San Francisco entering with just a 33 percent chance of winning, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by the final out, reflecting how completely the Giants controlled the contest once they broke through.
The lone scoring sequence came in the bottom of the seventh inning, when Patrick Bailey delivered the game's most consequential swing. His home run off Dodgers reliever Jack Dreyer shifted win probability by plus 22.8 percent in the batting team's favor, a single play that effectively ended the competitive portion of the night. That blow accounted for the bulk of Bailey's final line of plus 17.3 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, making him the clear offensive standout. Heliot Ramos contributed a supporting plus 6.1 percent WPA, and Rafael Devers added plus 3.3 percent WPA as the Giants collected eight hits without committing an error.
The pitching side told an equally compelling story. Tyler Mahle was dominant, posting a team-leading plus 46.1 percent WPA while repeatedly suppressing Dodgers threats, holding Los Angeles to four hits and zero runs. Shohei Ohtani followed with plus 20.6 percent WPA of his own despite allowing a notable minus 8.1 percent swing when Casey Schmitt struck out in the sixth, a moment that briefly preserved Dodgers competitiveness before Bailey's seventh-inning shot made it moot. Caleb Kilian closed the evening with plus 4.5 percent WPA, completing a shutout in which Los Angeles never managed to seriously threaten the Giants' lead.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.