The Miami Marlins defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-1 at loanDepot park on April 22, 2026, improving their position with a dominant home performance. The DiamondIQ model entered the game estimating a 44 percent win probability for Miami, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent, reflecting just how thoroughly the Marlins controlled the contest. Miami out-hit St. Louis 12 to 4, and the Cardinals committed an error while managing only a single run in the ninth inning against an otherwise airtight Miami effort.
The game's decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the second inning, where the Marlins did their most consequential damage against Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy. Jakob Marsee drew a walk that added 6.3 percent to Miami's win probability, followed by an Owen Caissie single worth another 5.7 percent. Leo Jiménez was then hit by a pitch, pushing the probability needle up an additional 4.8 percent. The lone negative swing of the frame came when Javier Sanoja popped out, costing Miami 4.6 percent, but the inning still produced two runs and established the tone. Marsee extended his impact in the fourth inning with a run-scoring single off Leahy worth 4.6 percent, pushing the lead to three.
On the mound, Janson Junk was the story of the night, generating a game-high 23.3 percent win probability added to anchor what became a thoroughly efficient Miami pitching performance. Anthony Bender contributed 7.2 percent and Pete Fairbanks added another 3.0 percent in support. Among position players, Marsee finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 9.3 percent, while Agustín Ramírez and Leo Jiménez each contributed 7.1 and 6.5 percent respectively, both posting a RE24 of plus 1.1. The model's lean toward a Marlins win, modest before first pitch, proved well-founded as Miami executed efficiently across all phases.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.