The Seattle Mariners walked off the Athletics 5-4 on April 22, 2026 at T-Mobile Park, delivering a dramatic finish that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 44 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent. The game appeared headed toward extra innings until Josh Naylor ended it with a walk-off single off Joel Kuhnel in the bottom of the ninth, a hit the DiamondIQ model valued at the largest single win-probability swing of the night at plus 37.9 percent. The finish came one half-inning after Nick Kurtz had nearly stolen the game for Oakland, launching a home run off Andrés Muñoz in the top of the ninth that registered a plus 35.7 percent win-probability swing and briefly put the Athletics ahead. J.P. Crawford's groundout into a double play in the bottom of the ninth, a minus 17.5 percent swing, briefly threatened to stall the Mariners' comeback before Naylor delivered the decisive blow.
Seattle built its foundation through the middle innings, with Mitch Garver contributing a double off Brady Basso in the sixth that added 12.1 percent to Seattle's win probability, and Cal Raleigh following with a double off Mark Leiter Jr. in the seventh worth 11.6 percent. Raleigh finished as one of the game's standout performers overall, posting a plus 22.2 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24, while Naylor led all position players with a plus 39.3 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24. Kurtz was the top Athletic despite the loss, finishing at plus 30.1 percent WPA and plus 0.9 RE24 on the strength of his ninth-inning home run. On the pitching side, Aaron Civale led Seattle's staff with a plus 12.3 percent WPA contribution, followed by José A. Ferrer at plus 11.5 percent and Cooper Criswell at plus 10.8 percent. Seattle out-hit Oakland 14 to 9, though the Mariners also committed two errors to none for the Athletics.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.