The Boston Red Sox defeated the Detroit Tigers 8-6 at Fenway Park on April 20, 2026, recovering from an early deficit to pull away in the late innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Boston only a 43% chance of winning at home, but that figure climbed steadily before reaching 100% by the final out, reflecting how thoroughly the Red Sox controlled the critical stretches of this contest.
The decisive sequence came in the seventh inning, where Boston turned a one-run game into a comfortable lead. Ceddanne Rafaela's single off Tyler Holton represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 13.7%, and Carlos Narváez followed with a single off the same pitcher that added another 8.9 percentage points. The sixth inning also proved pivotal in both directions: Roman Anthony's single off Brant Hurter generated a 12.5% swing for Boston, while Detroit's Jahmai Jones had answered with a 12.4% swing of his own on a single off Jovani Morán in the top half, and Hao-Yu Lee's single off Zack Kelly in the fourth had kept the Tigers within range at plus 10.0%. Detroit mounted a three-run effort in the ninth but the outcome was no longer in doubt.
Carlos Narváez led all position players by the DiamondIQ model's WPA metric at plus 25.6%, pairing that with a RE24 of plus 2.9 to reflect his consistent impact in high-leverage situations. Roman Anthony was close behind at plus 21.5% WPA and plus 2.1 RE24, while Riley Greene contributed plus 15.3% WPA and a team-best plus 2.8 RE24 for Detroit in a losing effort. On the pitching side, Greg Weissert topped all hurlers with a plus 16.5% WPA, followed by Brant Hurter at plus 8.6% and Garrett Whitlock at plus 8.3%, as Boston's bullpen ultimately secured the two-run final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.