The Miami Marlins defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 5-3 at loanDepot park on April 20, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate had as unlikely entering the game, with Miami's pre-game home win probability sitting at just 43%. The game remained scoreless through three innings before Miami's offense began doing its damage against Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy, who surrendered all three of the highest-impact plays of the contest. Xavier Edwards opened the scoring with a double in the bottom of the fourth that shifted win probability 9.5 points in Miami's favor, then Agustín Ramírez followed with a home run in the fifth that moved the needle another 12.4 points. The biggest swing of the night came in the bottom of the sixth when Otto Lopez laced a double off McGreevy that added 15.6 percentage points to Miami's win probability, effectively separating what had been a close game into a comfortable Marlins lead.
Miami's pitching staff was equally decisive. Max Meyer led all pitchers with a plus-13.5 WPA contribution, containing the Cardinals' lineup and benefiting from Nolan Gorman's walk in the fourth representing St. Louis's most productive plate appearance of the game at plus-6.9 WPA. Andrew Nardi added plus-11.4 WPA out of the bullpen, and Anthony Bender contributed plus-3.9 WPA as Miami's relievers locked the game down through the late innings. St. Louis managed a run in the ninth but finished with just five hits and no errors, unable to mount a meaningful rally. Among Miami's individual contributors, Edwards led all batters by RE24 at plus-1.4, while Lopez and Ramírez posted plus-1.2 and plus-0.9 respectively, underscoring how concentrated and timely the Marlins' offensive production was across the middle innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.