The Miami Marlins defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 5-3 at loanDepot park on April 19, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Miami win climbing from 42 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. Miami seized control early, as Eury Pérez kept the Brewers largely in check throughout his outing. Greg Jones's strikeout in the second inning carried a win-probability swing of -11.1 percent for Milwaukee, and Gary Sánchez grounded into a double play in the fourth at a cost of another -7.6 percent, stalling any early momentum the Brewers might have manufactured. Miami built its foundation with a three-run first inning, then added two more in the sixth, highlighted by Javier Sanoja's single off DL Hall that swung win probability 7.3 percent in the Marlins' favor. Milwaukee managed single runs in the sixth and eighth but never seriously threatened to close the gap, finishing with three runs on five hits and an error.
Eury Pérez was the defining force of the evening, his performance accounting for a model-leading +25.7 percent win probability added among pitchers. Pete Fairbanks contributed +6.3 percent and Michael Petersen added +4.1 percent as the Miami bullpen protected the lead. Offensively, Jakob Marsee led Marlins hitters with +9.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of +0.8, while Sanoja finished at +7.1 percent WPA. On the Milwaukee side, Brice Turang was the lone bright spot with +4.9 percent WPA, though it proved insufficient given how thoroughly Pérez limited the Brewers across the game's most critical stretches.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.