The Baltimore Orioles erased a four-run deficit with a six-run eighth inning to defeat the Cleveland Guardians 6-4 at Progressive Field on April 17, 2026. Cleveland had appeared firmly in control entering the final two innings, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win stood at a commanding level through six scoreless frames before the game turned decisively in Baltimore's favor.
The Guardians drew first blood in the bottom of the seventh, when Daniel Schneemann connected on a home run off Anthony Nunez that shifted win probability by plus 35.6 percentage points, and Chase DeLauter followed with a double off Grant Wolfram that added another 13.0 points to Cleveland's advantage. Those two plays built what looked like a decisive four-run cushion heading into the eighth. Baltimore answered emphatically, however, as Jeremiah Jackson delivered the game's single most consequential swing, a home run off Connor Brogdon in the top of the eighth that swung win probability by plus 52.7 percentage points and erased Cleveland's lead entirely. Weston Wilson added a double off Erik Sabrowski in the same frame, contributing another plus 17.6 percentage points to complete the six-run rally. Ryan Helsley closed out the ninth for Baltimore, and a George Valera groundout to end the game actually moved win probability plus 12.0 points in Cleveland's favor, reflecting just how slim the Guardians' remaining chances had become.
Jackson led all batters with a plus 45.1 WPA and plus 1.9 RE24 on the strength of his decisive blast, while Schneemann paced Cleveland with plus 34.2 WPA and a game-high plus 2.8 RE24. Wilson contributed plus 17.6 WPA for Baltimore. Among pitchers, Tanner Bibee led all arms with plus 26.1 WPA, followed closely by Chris Bassitt at plus 25.1 WPA, and Rico Garcia added plus 13.3 WPA in support. The DiamondIQ model, which opened with Cleveland holding a 56 percent pre-game win probability, closed at zero percent as Baltimore completed the comeback.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.