The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Houston Astros 9-4 at Daikin Park on April 17, 2026, handing Houston a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming by game's end, having opened with Houston holding a 42 percent pre-game win probability that collapsed to zero. The Cardinals scored in five of nine innings, building their lead incrementally before a three-run seventh inning put the game away for good. Houston's challenge was generating consistent offense against a Cardinals bullpen that ultimately held the Astros in check after a competitive middle stretch.
The decisive blow came in the top of the seventh, when Nolan Gorman deposited a home run off Bryan Abreu that swung win probability 24.5 percent in St. Louis's favor, the single largest play of the game. Earlier, Masyn Winn's third-inning single off Peter Lambert had moved the needle 13.7 percent toward the Cardinals, providing an early foundation. Houston briefly answered in the third, as Yordan Alvarez took Kyle Leahy deep for a 10.5 percent swing and Christian Vázquez followed with another home run off Leahy worth 9.4 percent. Jose Altuve added a solo shot off Leahy in the fifth for a 12.4 percent boost, keeping Houston within reach before the Cardinals' seventh-inning eruption effectively ended the contest.
Among individual standouts, Gorman finished with the game's top batting WPA at plus-16.2 percent alongside a RE24 of plus-1.1, while Ivan Herrera contributed plus-13.2 percent WPA and led all players with a RE24 of plus-2.7, indicating his plate appearances created significant run-expectancy value beyond what the win-probability figures alone convey. Winn rounded out the top three at plus-11.6 percent WPA. On the mound, Cardinals relievers Justin Bruihl, Steven Okert, and JoJo Romero posted WPA figures of plus-7.9, plus-6.0, and plus-3.6 percent respectively, collectively preserving the Cardinals' advantage across the final innings and securing the five-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.