The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the New York Mets 8-2 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on April 15, 2026, in a game that was never truly close once the middle innings took shape. The DiamondIQ model entered with a 54 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent, a trajectory that reflected just how thoroughly Los Angeles controlled the contest from the second inning onward.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the second, when Hyeseong Kim connected for a home run off Clay Holmes, a swing that carried a win-probability added of plus 13.3 percent and gave the Dodgers early momentum they never surrendered. The Mets briefly nudged back in the top of the fifth, when MJ Melendez doubled off Shohei Ohtani to generate a plus 11.4 percent win-probability swing, representing New York's best opportunity to make it a genuine contest. That window closed quickly, however, as Tommy Pham struck out against Ohtani in the same frame, a minus 7.3 percent swing that effectively ended the threat. Teoscar Hernandez followed with a home run off Tobias Myers in the bottom of the sixth, adding another plus 11.2 percent to Los Angeles's ledger before the Dodgers piled on five more runs in the eighth to extend the final margin to six.
On the mound, Ohtani was the game's most impactful performer, finishing with a plus 15.9 percent WPA, while Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen contributed plus 8.1 and plus 7.2 percent respectively to lock down the late innings. For the Mets, Melendez led all position players with a plus 10.6 percent WPA and an RE24 of plus 0.8, though those numbers came in a losing effort against a Dodgers lineup that collected 12 hits on the night. Los Angeles's trio of Kim, Hernandez, and Melendez accounted for the most consequential offensive moments in a game the model leaned toward the home side from the first pitch.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.