The Atlanta Braves handled the Miami Marlins 6-3 at Truist Park on April 15, 2026, a game that was never particularly close after the early innings and ended with the DiamondIQ model's estimate sitting at 100% in Atlanta's favor. The Braves built their lead methodically, scoring two in the second, one in the sixth, and three more in the seventh to put the game well beyond Miami's reach. The Marlins managed a three-run eighth, but by that point the damage was irreversible, and Atlanta closed it out without issue.
The decisive moments were distributed across several key swings of win probability. Ozzie Albies got Atlanta started with a home run off Chris Paddack in the second inning, a swing worth 7.6% in win probability. Austin Riley extended the lead with a home run off John King in the sixth, adding another 8.0%. On the other side, Xavier Edwards did significant damage to Miami's chances in the fifth inning, grounding into a double play off Bryce Elder that cost the Marlins 18.7% in win probability — the single most consequential play of the game. Graham Pauley's ground-ball double play in the eighth off Robert Suarez further deflated any remaining threat, shedding another 10.4%.
Bryce Elder was the story on the pitching side, posting a game-high 22.7% in WPA to anchor the win convincingly. Among position players, Austin Slater led all contributors with 6.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.8, while Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies each added 5.4% WPA. Riley's RE24 of plus-1.1 made him the most impactful run-environment contributor in the game. The model, which opened with a 54% pre-game home win probability, saw Atlanta validate that lean in decisive fashion across nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.