The New York Yankees defeated the Los Angeles Angels 5-4 on April 15, 2026, at Yankee Stadium in a game that remained tightly contested through eight innings before a dramatic bottom-ninth comeback sealed the result. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving New York a 54% home win probability, a number that would swing violently in the final frame as the Yankees trailed heading into their last at-bat and ultimately closed the gap at 100% certainty.
The Angels appeared to have seized control in the top of the fifth, when Mike Trout connected on a home run off Luis Gil that added 21.6% to Los Angeles's win probability, the second-largest single swing of the game. Logan O'Hoppe followed with another home run against Gil in the same inning, contributing an additional 11.1% swing, as the Angels pushed across three runs in the fifth to take a 4-2 lead and put considerable pressure on the Yankees bullpen. New York, however, chipped away and carried a one-run deficit into the ninth inning facing Jordan Romano. Austin Wells drew a walk to extend the inning, a play worth 12.3% in win probability, and then José Caballero delivered the decisive blow, a two-run double off Romano that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 67.2% — the largest single play of the game — and completed the walk-off victory.
Caballero finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 59.7% with an RE24 of plus 0.6, while Wells contributed plus 20.4% WPA and plus 0.9 RE24 in support. Trout led all Angels batters at plus 16.9% WPA despite his team's defeat. On the pitching side, Drew Pomeranz led New York's staff with plus 29.7% WPA, highlighted by his role in stranding Angels threats in the eighth, including a critical pop out from Cody Bellinger that swung 12.9% back toward the Yankees. Brent Headrick and Fernando Cruz also contributed positively at plus 7.4% and plus 6.6% WPA respectively as New York's bullpen held Los Angeles scoreless over the final five innings to set up the ninth-inning finish.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.