The San Diego Padres defeated the Seattle Mariners 4-1 at Petco Park on April 14, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win climbing from a pre-game 54% all the way to 100% by the final out. The game turned decisively in the bottom of the third inning, where San Diego did the bulk of its damage against Bryan Woo. The single most consequential moment of the night came when Xander Bogaerts lined a single off Woo that shifted win probability by plus 19.2%, and Bogaerts finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a cumulative WPA of plus 22.6% and a RE24 of plus 2.6. Ramón Laureano added a triple in that same inning for a plus 7.8% swing, finishing with plus 9.3% WPA on the night, while Manny Machado's pop out in the third represented the frame's one significant missed opportunity at plus 6.2% lost. Jackson Merrill also contributed meaningfully at plus 5.8% WPA and plus 0.9 RE24 as San Diego built its three-run third into an insurmountable lead.
Seattle's attempts to respond were repeatedly snuffed out by the Padres bullpen. J.P. Crawford grounded into a double play off Michael King in the top of the sixth for a minus 7.0% swing, and Josh Naylor did the same off Jason Adam in the top of the eighth for minus 8.9%, each killing a potential Mariners rally before it could develop. On the pitching side, Michael King led all pitchers with plus 17.8% WPA, followed by Jason Adam at plus 8.1% and Adrian Morejon at plus 7.2%, as San Diego's relievers held Seattle to a single run on four hits across nine innings. The Mariners finished without an error but could not overcome the third-inning burst, and the DiamondIQ model leans heavily toward San Diego's pitching staff as the defining factor in the outcome.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.