The Chicago Cubs handed the Philadelphia Phillies a 10-4 defeat at Citizens Bank Park on April 14, 2026, collecting 15 hits against a Philadelphia staff that allowed runs in four different innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Phillies a 54 percent chance of winning at home, but by the final out that figure had fallen to zero as Chicago steadily dismantled the home side across nine innings.
The game's largest single swing came in the bottom of the second, when Edmundo Sosa drove a home run off Colin Rea that shifted win probability 17.7 percent in Philadelphia's favor, briefly making the contest look like it might belong to the Phillies. Chicago answered in the top of the third, where an Ian Happ double off Aaron Nola moved the needle 10.2 percent back toward the Cubs, and the visitors took the lead for good with two runs in that frame. The knockout blow came in the top of the sixth, a four-run inning against the Philadelphia bullpen that proved decisive. Alex Bregman's single off Brad Keller added 14.2 percent to Chicago's win probability, and Nico Hoerner followed with a single off Tim Mayza worth another 11.0 percent, turning a close game into a comfortable lead. The Cubs added three more in the ninth to set the final margin.
Bregman finished as the game's top performer by WPA, contributing plus-25.4 percent win probability and a RE24 of plus-1.9, while Sosa posted plus-19.3 percent WPA and led all players with a RE24 of plus-2.4 despite his homer ultimately coming on the losing side. Hoerner added plus-11.0 percent WPA in support. On the mound, Caleb Thielbar was Chicago's most impactful reliever, posting a plus-6.0 percent WPA contribution that included inducing an Alec Bohm strikeout in the eighth that swung probability 11.3 percent against Philadelphia. The DiamondIQ model favors performances built around this kind of sustained lineup-wide contribution, and Chicago delivered exactly that across all nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.