The New York Yankees survived a chaotic back-and-forth contest at Yankee Stadium on April 13, 2026, defeating the Los Angeles Angels 11-10 in a game that featured multiple lead changes and significant win-probability swings throughout. The DiamondIQ model entered the night assigning a 54 percent home win probability to New York, and while that edge held in the final result, the path there was anything but straightforward.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Trent Grisham launched a home run off Jordan Romano that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 47.3 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. It capped a three-run ninth-inning rally that began with a José Caballero double off Romano, a play that itself moved the needle 17.5 percentage points. Grisham finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 63.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 3.3, having also homered off Shaun Anderson in the fifth for a 20.1-point swing. The Angels' offense was led by Mike Trout, who delivered back-to-back home runs — one off Jake Bird in the sixth for plus 31.6 percent and another off Camilo Doval in the eighth for plus 31.7 percent — finishing with a WPA of plus 57.8 and a RE24 of plus 4.0, the highest run-context figure of any individual in the game.
On the pitching side, the Yankees' bullpen ultimately secured the win, with Drew Pomeranz contributing the most among New York's arms at plus 13.3 percent WPA, followed by Mitch Farris at plus 10.8 percent and Tim Hill at plus 9.0 percent. Romano surrendered the two critical ninth-inning blows but the Yankees had built enough of a cushion through eight innings to hold on, finishing with 14 hits and committing one error, matching Los Angeles's defensive miscue in a game that offered little margin throughout.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.