The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the New York Yankees 5-4 at Tropicana Field on April 12, 2026, holding on through a late Yankees rally to claim the victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Tampa Bay a 54% win probability, and while that edge held for most of the contest, it was not without significant late drama before the final win probability settled at 100% in the Rays' favor.
Tampa Bay built its advantage early, scoring in each of the first two innings to take a 3-0 lead, and the Rays' pitching staff kept New York off the board through six frames. The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the seventh, when Chandler Simpson laced a triple off Ryan Yarbrough, a play that shifted win probability 10.3 points in Tampa Bay's favor and represented Simpson's most impactful moment in a game where he finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-15.6%. Drew Rasmussen led all pitchers with a plus-24.1% WPA, while Kevin Kelly added plus-16.3%, including a critical top-eighth inning in which José Caballero grounded into a double play, a swing of minus-13.8% in win probability that effectively extinguished a Yankees threat.
New York mounted a genuine scare in the ninth against Mason Englert, with Aaron Judge launching a home run worth plus-8.9% in win probability and Amed Rosario contributing a double at plus-7.9%, cutting the deficit to one run. Judge finished second among all batters with a plus-12.9% WPA and plus-1.7 RE24. However, Ryan McMahon's groundout to end the inning, registering minus-13.5% in win probability, closed the door on the comeback, leaving the Yankees with four runs on seven hits and the Rays with their 5-4 final.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.