The Pittsburgh Pirates edged the Chicago Cubs 4-3 in eleven innings at Wrigley Field on April 11, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had initially set at just 46 percent in Pittsburgh's favor before first pitch. The Pirates scored in the second and third innings to build an early 2-0 lead, but Chicago answered with single runs in the fifth, seventh, and ninth to force extra innings. The Cubs' ninth-inning run was the most pivotal swing of the Chicago half, as Alex Bregman's single off Dennis Santana shifted win probability by plus-36.2 percent in the home team's favor and knotted the game at three heading to the tenth.
The eleventh inning ultimately decided everything, and errors proved to be the story. Brandon Lowe reached on a fielding error off Caleb Thielbar in the top half, a play that shifted Pittsburgh's win probability by plus-37.8 percent and provided what became the game-winning margin. In the bottom half, Nico Hoerner reached on a fielding error off Yohan Ramírez, a plus-38.8 percent swing that gave Chicago its best chance to walk it off, but Bregman's pop out to Ramírez immediately surrendered minus-25.9 percent and the Cubs could not complete the rally. Chicago's three errors on the night proved costly against a Pittsburgh club that recorded eleven hits.
Individually, Lowe was Pittsburgh's most valuable offensive contributor, finishing with a plus-39.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.6. For Chicago, Hoerner led with plus-27.6 percent WPA despite the loss, while Dansby Swanson added plus-21.7 percent. On the mound, Isaac Mattson was the most impactful arm of the night, posting plus-23.3 percent WPA, with Braxton Ashcraft and Ben Brown also contributing positive contributions for Pittsburgh. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for the Cubs, a complete reversal from their 54 percent pre-game projection.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.