The Washington Nationals erased a three-run first-inning deficit to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers 7-3 at American Family Field on April 10, 2026, completing a late comeback that dropped the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Brewers win from 54 percent before first pitch to zero percent by the final out. Milwaukee drew first blood in the bottom of the first, jumping out to a 3-2 lead after one inning, but Washington's pitching and bullpen held the Brewers scoreless across the next eight half-innings, allowing the offense to gradually claw back into the game.
The decisive sequence unfolded over the final three innings. Jacob Young's double off Angel Zerpa in the top of the seventh shifted the DiamondIQ model by 11.7 percent in Washington's favor, and the Nationals ultimately tied or took the lead before putting the game away in the ninth. Washington then erupted for four runs in the top of the ninth against Trevor Megill, with Luis García Jr. delivering a single that carried the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-24.2 percent. Joey Wiemer added a single moments later for an additional plus-9.4 percent swing. William Contreras's groundout in the bottom of the seventh, which cost Milwaukee 11.6 percent in win probability off Cionel Pérez, illustrated how thoroughly the Brewers' chances had eroded before the final frame arrived.
Among individual performers, the DiamondIQ model credited Angel Zerpa as the top pitcher by WPA at plus-14.4 percent, followed by PJ Poulin at plus-10.9 percent and Abner Uribe at plus-10.6 percent, all working in Washington's behalf. At the plate, Joey Wiemer led by WPA at plus-14.2 percent, followed closely by Luis García Jr. at plus-14.1 percent, while Jacob Young posted plus-11.7 percent alongside a run-expectancy contribution of plus-0.8 RE24. Washington finished with 11 hits against Milwaukee's four, a disparity that ultimately reflected how one-sided the game became after the first inning.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.