The Athletics shut out the New York Mets 4-0 at Citi Field on April 10, 2026, holding New York scoreless across nine innings while the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets win, which opened the game at 54 percent, fell steadily to zero by the final out. Oakland did its damage in concentrated bursts, scratching across a run in the third and adding three more in the ninth on a Mets squad that could not convert its best opportunities when they arose.
The two most damaging swings in win-probability terms both went against New York. In the bottom of the eighth, Bo Bichette struck out against Scott Barlow in a situation the DiamondIQ model valued at an 18.7 percent swing in win probability, the single costliest plate appearance of the game. Earlier, in the bottom of the sixth, Luis Robert Jr. grounded into a double play off Jack Perkins, costing the Mets 14.2 percent in win probability and extinguishing what had briefly looked like a rally — Bichette had drawn a single off Perkins moments before to generate a 7.1 percent positive swing for the home side. Oakland's own key blow came in the third, when Shea Langeliers singled off Clay Holmes for a 9.0 percent win-probability gain that pushed the Athletics ahead to stay.
On the pitching side, Scott Barlow led all pitchers with a 24.2 percent WPA contribution, followed by J.T. Ginn at plus-18.4 percent and Jack Perkins at plus-16.7 percent, a collective effort that rendered six Mets hits entirely harmless. Offensively, Jacob Wilson paced Oakland with a plus-7.2 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24, while Langeliers added plus-4.0 percent WPA to complement his third-inning hit. The Mets' lone error compounded an already difficult evening, and the model's lean throughout the second half of the game was firmly toward the Athletics completing a clean road shutout.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.