The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3 at Rogers Centre on April 8, 2026, in a game that remained tightly contested until the seventh inning broke it open. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Toronto holding a 54 percent home win probability, and the contest played out close to that margin for much of the afternoon before the Blue Jays pulled away late.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the seventh, where Toronto transformed a one-run deficit into a lead it would not relinquish. The Dodgers had taken a 3-2 advantage on a Will Smith single off Tyler Rogers in the top half of the frame, a hit that shifted win probability 14.2 percent in Los Angeles's favor and represented the game's high-water mark for the visiting club. But Jack Dreyer could not hold the lead. George Springer greeted him with a double that swung win probability 21.1 percent toward Toronto, and Daulton Varsho followed with a single worth another 19.0 percent, giving the Blue Jays a 4-3 lead they carried the rest of the way. Jeff Hoffman closed out the ninth, retiring Max Muncy on a groundout and striking out Freddie Freeman to end the game, with those two outs costing the Dodgers 13.5 and 12.8 percent in win probability respectively.
Among individual performers, Will Smith led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus-34.7 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.7, though his contributions ultimately came in a losing effort. Springer finished at plus-21.9 percent WPA and Varsho at plus-19.5 percent, their seventh-inning damage proving decisive. On the pitching side, Shohei Ohtani led Dodgers pitchers with a plus-20.6 percent WPA, while Blake Treinen posted plus-18.0 percent and Hoffman closed at plus-15.2 percent to secure the Toronto victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.