The Boston Red Sox shut out the Milwaukee Brewers 5-0 at Fenway Park on April 8, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston win climbing from 54% before first pitch to 100% by game's end. The scoring came in two bursts, with Boston plating three runs in the third inning and two more in the seventh to pull away cleanly against a Milwaukee offense that managed just four hits on the night.
The third inning proved to be the game's pivotal stretch. Willson Contreras drew a walk off Shane Drohan that shifted Boston's win probability by plus 8.9 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game, and Wilyer Abreu followed with a single that added another 7.0 points. Those two plays in sequence effectively broke the game open from a probability standpoint, turning what had been a modest home-field lean into a decisive Boston advantage. Milwaukee threatened briefly in the top of the seventh when Gary Sánchez drew a walk off Sonny Gray that nudged the Brewers' chances up 4.8 points, but Luis Rengifo grounded into a forceout on the next at-bat, erasing 4.3 points and snuffing the rally. Trevor Story then singled off Jake Woodford in the bottom half to cap the scoring at 5-0.
Sonny Gray was the standout performer of the night by a wide margin, posting a plus 22.0% WPA to lead all players and anchoring a Boston pitching effort that allowed no runs across nine innings. Grant Anderson and Greg Weissert contributed plus 5.8% and plus 5.5% WPA respectively in relief. Among position players, Contreras led with plus 6.2% WPA, while Abreu added plus 5.5% and Ceddanne Rafaela contributed plus 3.3% WPA alongside the game's top RE24 mark among hitters at plus 0.8.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.