Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Minnesota Twins 4-1 on April 5, 2026, at Target Field, erasing a game that appeared headed for a Twins victory before a dramatic three-run tenth inning sealed the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 54 percent home win probability favoring Minnesota, but that number collapsed to zero by the final out as Tampa Bay strung together the decisive blows in extra innings.

The pivotal moment of the game came in the top of the tenth when Richie Palacios connected on a home run off Justin Topa, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 51.7 percent and effectively ended Minnesota's chances. Palacios finished as the game's most impactful player by a wide margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus 61.3 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.6. Prior to that swing, the Rays had been held in check for most of the contest, with Junior Caminero's fourth-inning home run off Simeon Woods Richardson — worth plus 11.4 percent in win probability — standing as Tampa Bay's lone offensive highlight through nine innings. Minnesota's best opportunity to pull away came in the eighth, but a Jonathan Aranda double play off Cole Sands cost the Rays minus 14.9 percent in win probability, keeping the game tight enough for the eventual Rays surge.

On the pitching side, Cole Sands led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 24.1 percent, followed by Nick Martinez at plus 19.8 percent and Griffin Jax at plus 19.2 percent, as the Twins bullpen held Tampa Bay scoreless from the second through ninth innings before the tenth unraveled. Matt Wallner's strikeout against Bryan Baker in the bottom of the ninth, worth plus 14.0 percent to the Rays, kept the deficit at one and set the stage for Palacios's decisive blow. Tampa Bay finished with eight hits against three for Minnesota, committing no errors in a clean defensive performance.