Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs edged the Cleveland Guardians 1-0 at Progressive Field on April 5, 2026, with their lone run in the top of the eighth inning proving to be all they needed. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 54% home win probability for Cleveland, but that figure fell steadily before reaching 0% by the final out, reflecting just how thoroughly Chicago's pitching staff locked down the Guardians offense over nine innings. Chicago finished with two hits and no errors, while Cleveland managed only one hit across the entire game.

The pivotal sequence centered on the eighth inning and its aftermath. Miguel Amaya's single off Connor Brogdon in the top of the eighth generated a 15.4% win-probability swing and put Chicago ahead, while Hoby Milner responded in the bottom half by inducing a Chase DeLauter groundout into a double play, a play that shifted the win-probability needle by 19.0% in Chicago's favor. DeLauter had also been at the center of a fielder's choice out in the sixth off Edward Cabrera, another swing of 10.5%. José Ramírez's pop out off Milner in the eighth added another 12.9% shift toward the Cubs. When Slade Cecconi, Milner, and Edward Cabrera combined to strand Cleveland throughout, the Guardians were left without a viable path back.

By WPA, the game's defining individual was Daniel Schneemann, who finished at plus-22.1% despite a minus-0.8 RE24, his strikeout to end the ninth off Daniel Palencia representing a 31.6% win-probability swing that sealed the victory. Amaya finished at plus-17.3% WPA and plus-0.9 RE24, making him Chicago's most productive bat. On the mound, Slade Cecconi led all pitchers at plus-27.3% WPA, followed closely by Milner at plus-23.3% and Cabrera at plus-20.8%, a collective pitching performance that rendered Cleveland's one hit entirely inconsequential.