The Arizona Diamondbacks walked off the Atlanta Braves 6-5 in ten innings on April 5, 2026, at Chase Field, completing a comeback that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win climb from 54 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by game's end. Arizona trailed entering the fourth inning before Ildemaro Vargas delivered a triple off Martín Pérez that shifted win probability by 21.4 percent and opened a two-run frame for the D-backs. Atlanta answered with a two-run fifth to level the game, and the clubs traded single runs in the seventh and ninth before forcing extras.
The ninth inning was where Atlanta briefly seized momentum, as Drake Baldwin's single off Jonathan Loáisiga added 31.3 percent in win probability and represented his most consequential of several impactful moments on the night. Baldwin finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-45.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.1, driving the Braves' best scoring opportunities throughout the contest. Arizona countered in the bottom of the seventh when Corbin Carroll tripled off Dylan Lee for a 17.6 percent swing, keeping the D-backs competitive heading into the late innings.
Arizona's bullpen ultimately secured the outcome, with Taylor Clarke posting plus-11.3 percent WPA and Kevin Ginkel adding plus-10.8 percent to preserve the lead while Atlanta's offense ran out of answers. In the top of the tenth, Mauricio Dubón's groundout off Taylor Rashi cost the Braves 18.0 percent in win probability and effectively ended their threat. Ketel Marte then ended it in the bottom half, doubling off Joel Payamps for a 35.9 percent swing to plate the winning run, finishing with plus-29.5 percent WPA on the night.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.