Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| PIT | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 5 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Baltimore Orioles 5-4 at PNC Park on April 3, 2026, completing a come-from-behind victory that the DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 100 percent in Pittsburgh's favor. The Pirates built their foundation early, erupting for all four of their second-inning runs in a burst that proved pivotal to the outcome. Konnor Griffin's double off Kyle Bradish added 8.4 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability in that frame, and a Bryan Reynolds flyout contributed an additional 7.3 percent, reflecting how thoroughly Baltimore's starter struggled to limit the damage in that inning.
Baltimore mounted its most credible threat in the fifth and seventh innings, cutting the deficit incrementally before Taylor Ward's double off Yohan Ramírez in the top of the seventh represented the game's single largest individual play, swinging win probability 13.5 percent in the Orioles' direction and briefly tightening what had been a comfortable Pittsburgh cushion. However, Mason Montgomery entered and induced a Samuel Basallo strikeout that swung 9.1 percent back toward Pittsburgh, effectively neutralizing Baltimore's momentum at the most critical juncture of the game. Gunnar Henderson's double off Mitch Keller in the fifth had similarly kept Baltimore within striking distance, adding 8.0 percent to their win probability.
Among the standout performers, Mason Montgomery led all pitchers with 14.0 percent added to Pittsburgh's win probability, and Dennis Santana and Gregory Soto contributed 8.1 and 6.3 percent respectively as the Pirates bullpen held firm. Offensively, Griffin and Ward finished as the top WPA contributors on their respective sides, at plus 9.2 and plus 9.3 percent, while Reynolds posted plus 7.2 percent despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.5, indicating his contributions came in lower-leverage run-expectancy contexts. Baltimore finished with nine hits to Pittsburgh's six but could not convert enough of that contact into runs against a Pittsburgh pitching staff that the DiamondIQ model's estimate ultimately gave no remaining path to an Orioles victory.